V-Lab
CBOE Google Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
171.76%
increased by 83.85%
1 Week
135.18%
increased by 47.27%
1 Month
115.81%
increased by 27.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1988 | 5.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2939 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1682 | 2.19** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0952 | 1.97** |
| γ2 | -0.1575 | -2.32** |
| γ3 | 0.0811 | 2.26** |
| γ4 | -0.0152 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.462
Half-life:
1 days
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