V-Lab
CBOE Google Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
95.26%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
106.00%
increased by 9.95%
1 Month
115.92%
increased by 19.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.0000 | 5.11*** |
| αARCH | 0.1684 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5676 | 10.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.7024 | 0.44 |
0.736
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 5.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1684 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5676 | 10.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7024 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.736
Half-life:
2 days
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