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CBOE Google Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

95.26%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

106.00%

increased by 9.95%

1 Month

115.92%

increased by 19.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Google Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.0000
5.11***
αARCH0.1684
4.90***
βGARCH0.5676
10.71***
γleverage0.7024
0.44

0.736

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.0000
5.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1684
4.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5676
10.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7024
0.44

Persistence:

0.736

Half-life:

2 days