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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

114.01%

decreased by 13.27%

1 Week

110.49%

decreased by 16.79%

1 Month

104.97%

decreased by 22.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -4.18) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.6668
7.30***
αARCH0.1398
12.39***
βGARCH0.6860
66.42***
γleverage-4.1826
-5.85***

0.826

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.6668
7.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1398
12.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6860
66.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-4.1826
-5.85***

Persistence:

0.826

Half-life:

4 days