V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
59.53%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
65.82%
increased by 4.38%
1 Month
76.20%
increased by 14.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.69) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6242 | 17.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1338 | 19.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7370 | 98.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.6947 | -12.91*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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