V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
81.28%
decreased by 6.48%
1 Week
81.76%
decreased by 6.00%
1 Month
82.51%
decreased by 5.25%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.84) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4113 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.1326 | 4.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7035 | 19.78*** |
| γleverage | -2.8365 | -3.31*** |
0.836
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4113 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1326 | 4.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7035 | 19.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.8365 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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