S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
112.68%
decreased by 20.93%
1 Week
120.35%
decreased by 13.26%
1 Month
131.36%
decreased by 2.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.6052 | 6.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.3030 | 6.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5298 | 12.94*** |
| γleverage | 1.8300 | 1.41 |
0.833
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.6052 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3030 | 6.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5298 | 12.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.8300 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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