S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
165.31%
increased by 69.48%
1 Week
152.59%
increased by 56.76%
1 Month
136.57%
increased by 40.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8074 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.4631 | 9.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8062 | 22.40*** |
| γleverage | -0.0918 | -1.83* |
0.806
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8074 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4631 | 9.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8062 | 22.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0918 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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