TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
106.56%
decreased by 2.02%
1 Week
105.67%
decreased by 2.91%
1 Month
103.25%
decreased by 5.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 83% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2125 | 13.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2533 | 24.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9419 | 212.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0745 | 8.21*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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