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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

106.56%

decreased by 2.02%

1 Week

105.67%

decreased by 2.91%

1 Month

103.25%

decreased by 5.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 83% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2125
13.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2533
24.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9419
212.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0745
8.21***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days