V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
85.27%
decreased by 7.59%
1 Week
91.20%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
94.43%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1961 | 6.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6356 | 13.41*** |
| γleverage | -0.0691 | -1.62 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 2.01** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5958 | 2.02** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0949 | 0.24 |
0.797
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1961 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6356 | 13.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0691 | -1.62 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.01** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5958 | 2.02** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0949 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.797
Half-life:
3 days
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