V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
74.79%
1 Week
79.11%
1 Month
86.43%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 54% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1999 | 25.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6313 | 43.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0703 | -5.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5961 | 0.67 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0938 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.796
Half-life:
3 days
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