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V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

91.72%

increased by 2.14%

1 Week

95.39%

increased by 5.81%

1 Month

101.94%

increased by 12.36%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 54% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1953
25.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6369
44.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0689
-5.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.63
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5990
0.66
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0923
0.06

Persistence:

0.798

Half-life:

3 days