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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

74.27%

decreased by 3.20%

1 Week

81.15%

increased by 3.68%

1 Month

92.27%

increased by 14.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.1966
6.09***
βGARCH0.6348
13.38***
γleverage-0.0696
-1.64
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
2.01**
λ₂forecast adj.0.5956
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.0945
0.23

0.797

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1966
6.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6348
13.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0696
-1.64
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
2.01**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5956
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0945
0.23

Persistence:

0.797

Half-life:

3 days