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TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

85.27%

decreased by 7.59%

1 Week

91.20%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

94.43%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

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graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.1961
6.06***
βGARCH0.6356
13.41***
γleverage-0.0691
-1.62
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
2.01**
λ₂forecast adj.0.5958
2.02**
λ₃tau persistence0.0949
0.24

0.797

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1961
6.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6356
13.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0691
-1.62
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
2.01**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5958
2.02**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0949
0.24

Persistence:

0.797

Half-life:

3 days