V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
91.72%
1 Week
95.39%
1 Month
101.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 54% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1953 | 25.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6369 | 44.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0689 | -5.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.63 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5990 | 0.66 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0923 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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