V-Lab
TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
117.32%
increased by 29.27%
1 Week
113.85%
increased by 25.80%
1 Month
105.30%
increased by 17.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1952 | 6.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6368 | 13.46*** |
| γleverage | -0.0685 | -1.60 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 2.00** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5929 | 2.01** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0963 | 0.24 |
0.798
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1952 | 6.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6368 | 13.46*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0685 | -1.60 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.00** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5929 | 2.01** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0963 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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