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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

68.14%

decreased by 3.07%

1 Week

71.64%

increased by 0.43%

1 Month

77.10%

increased by 5.89%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.2062
7.65***
βGARCH0.6895
16.38***
γleverage-0.1669
-5.52***
λ₁tau intercept1.2948
1.16
λ₂forecast adj.0.0656
1.24
λ₃tau persistence0.8953
10.74***

0.812

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2062
7.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6895
16.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1669
-5.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.2948
1.16
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0656
1.24
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8953
10.74***

Persistence:

0.812

Half-life:

3 days