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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

69.27%

decreased by 4.16%

1 Week

71.65%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Month

75.98%

increased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.2083
7.67***
βGARCH0.6871
16.25***
γleverage-0.1683
-5.52***
λ₁tau intercept1.2737
1.16
λ₂forecast adj.0.0659
1.25
λ₃tau persistence0.8957
10.91***

0.811

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2083
7.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6871
16.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1683
-5.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.2737
1.16
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0659
1.25
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8957
10.91***

Persistence:

0.811

Half-life:

3 days