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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

61.29%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

66.54%

increased by 4.80%

1 Month

73.74%

increased by 12.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 397% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 397% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow56
αARCH0.2084
7.67***
βGARCH0.6849
16.08***
γleverage-0.1665
-5.47***
λ₁tau intercept1.2194
1.19
λ₂forecast adj.0.0652
1.28
λ₃tau persistence0.8978
11.42***

0.810

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2084
7.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6849
16.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1665
-5.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.2194
1.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0652
1.28
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8978
11.42***

Persistence:

0.810

Half-life:

3 days