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V-Lab

CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

76.72%

decreased by 6.63%

1 Week

76.58%

decreased by 6.77%

1 Month

77.67%

decreased by 5.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2079
30.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6932
47.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1720
-22.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.2649
1.21
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0646
1.53
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8973
12.39***

Persistence:

0.815

Half-life:

3 days