V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
61.29%
1 Week
66.54%
1 Month
73.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 03:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 397% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.2084 | 7.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6849 | 16.08*** |
| γleverage | -0.1665 | -5.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.2194 | 1.19 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0652 | 1.28 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8978 | 11.42*** |
0.810
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2084 | 7.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6849 | 16.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1665 | -5.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.2194 | 1.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0652 | 1.28 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8978 | 11.42*** |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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