V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
68.14%
1 Week
71.64%
1 Month
77.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.2062 | 7.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6895 | 16.38*** |
| γleverage | -0.1669 | -5.52*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.2948 | 1.16 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0656 | 1.24 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8953 | 10.74*** |
0.812
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2062 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6895 | 16.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1669 | -5.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.2948 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0656 | 1.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8953 | 10.74*** |
Persistence:
0.812
Half-life:
3 days
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