V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
74.20%
1 Week
76.38%
1 Month
82.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6869 | 1.92* |
| αARCH | 0.0541 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8868 | 45.99*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -0.03 |
| δpower | 1.4588 | 6.23*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6869 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0541 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8868 | 45.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.03 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4588 | 6.23*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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