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V-Lab

CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

74.68%

decreased by 2.37%

1 Week

76.87%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

83.08%

increased by 6.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7009
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0546
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8854
45.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-0.03
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4595
6.24***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days