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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

74.20%

decreased by 2.32%

1 Week

76.38%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

82.62%

increased by 6.10%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifeδ = 1.46 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6869
1.92*
αARCH0.0541
0.04
βGARCH0.8868
45.99***
γleverage-1.0000
-0.03
δpower1.4588
6.23***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6869
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8868
45.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-0.03
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4588
6.23***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days