V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
74.68%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Week
76.87%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
83.08%
increased by 6.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7009 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8854 | 45.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.03 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4595 | 6.24*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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