V-Lab
CBOE Amazon Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
96.09%
1 Week
107.24%
1 Month
115.96%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 133% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1530 | 12.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5448 | 14.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6571 | -14.83*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5380 | 6.28*** |
Persistence:
0.662
Half-life:
2 days
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