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V-Lab

CBOE Amazon Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

96.09%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Week

107.24%

increased by 8.51%

1 Month

115.96%

increased by 17.23%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 133% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.54 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1530
12.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5448
14.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6571
-14.83***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5380
6.28***

Persistence:

0.662

Half-life:

2 days