V-Lab
CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
107.59%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
108.25%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
109.68%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 7, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.0093 | 0.70 |
| βGARCH | 0.8887 | 6.37*** |
0.898
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0093 | 0.70 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8887 | 6.37*** |
Persistence:
0.898
Half-life:
6 days
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