V-Lab
HSI Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
64.80%
increased by 0.90%
1 Week
68.39%
increased by 4.49%
1 Month
77.26%
increased by 13.36%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 16, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0532 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1006 | 4.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8368 | 30.18*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0532 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1006 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8368 | 30.18*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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