V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
105.09%
decreased by 9.66%
1 Week
105.11%
decreased by 9.64%
1 Month
105.16%
decreased by 9.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2468 | 19.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1498 | 27.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7763 | 112.65*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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