V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
116.30%
decreased by 2.69%
1 Week
115.02%
decreased by 3.97%
1 Month
111.61%
decreased by 7.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9958 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1426 | 6.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7899 | 30.48*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9958 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1426 | 6.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7899 | 30.48*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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