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Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

116.30%

decreased by 2.69%

1 Week

115.02%

decreased by 3.97%

1 Month

111.61%

decreased by 7.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.

σ

GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9958
4.85***
αARCH0.1426
6.98***
βGARCH0.7899
30.48***

0.933

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9958
4.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1426
6.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7899
30.48***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days