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V-Lab

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

177.16%

decreased by 22.88%

1 Week

168.80%

decreased by 31.24%

1 Month

157.29%

decreased by 42.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 354% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2302
30.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6583
52.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1796
-12.98***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2185
2.05**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0125
3.01***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9814
147.86***

Persistence:

0.799

Half-life:

3 days