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V-Lab

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

179.52%

increased by 29.04%

1 Week

171.17%

increased by 20.69%

1 Month

158.88%

increased by 8.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 355% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2307
30.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6581
52.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1800
-12.99***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2146
2.05**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0125
3.04***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9815
149.73***

Persistence:

0.799

Half-life:

3 days