V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
78.77%
1 Week
74.94%
1 Month
70.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 378% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2177 | 18.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6761 | 34.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1721 | -12.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.1510 | 1.14 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6277 | 1.21 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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