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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

49.56%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

54.57%

increased by 5.85%

1 Month

61.88%

increased by 13.16%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 393% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2149
18.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6792
34.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1713
-12.32***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

7.1656
1.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6249
1.19
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.808

Half-life:

3 days