V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Last recorded values (Monday, August 17th, 2026):
1 Day
49.56%
1 Week
54.57%
1 Month
61.88%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 393% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.2149 | 4.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6792 | 11.53*** |
| γleverage | -0.1713 | -3.62*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 7.1656 | 2.76*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6249 | 2.58*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.808
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2149 | 4.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6792 | 11.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1713 | -3.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.1656 | 2.76*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6249 | 2.58*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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