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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

63.34%

increased by 2.05%

1 Week

67.54%

increased by 6.25%

1 Month

75.32%

increased by 14.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7194
11.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1785
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7072
15.99***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0035
-4.03***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days