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V-Lab

S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

96.10%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Week

109.21%

increased by 11.37%

1 Month

121.15%

increased by 23.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2178
6.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2321
6.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5045
6.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.4903
1.65*
γ2-0.1143
-0.25
γ3-0.5969
-1.64
γ4-0.3174
-0.75
γ51.1775
2.52**
γ6-0.8534
-2.83***

Persistence:

0.737

Half-life:

2 days