V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
98.02%
decreased by 5.07%
1 Week
111.62%
increased by 8.53%
1 Month
123.67%
increased by 20.58%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:51 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3384 | 7.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.2460 | 5.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4837 | 6.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.6103 | 5.32*** |
| γ2 | -0.9699 | -5.23*** |
| γ3 | 0.5131 | 4.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.1850 | -2.97*** |
0.730
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3384 | 7.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2460 | 5.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4837 | 6.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.6103 | 5.32*** |
| γ2 | -0.9699 | -5.23*** |
| γ3 | 0.5131 | 4.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.1850 | -2.97*** |
Persistence:
0.730
Half-life:
2 days
Other S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices