S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
96.10%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
109.21%
increased by 11.37%
1 Month
121.15%
increased by 23.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2178 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2321 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5045 | 6.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.4903 | 1.65* |
| γ2 | -0.1143 | -0.25 |
| γ3 | -0.5969 | -1.64 |
| γ4 | -0.3174 | -0.75 |
| γ5 | 1.1775 | 2.52** |
| γ6 | -0.8534 | -2.83*** |
Persistence:
0.737
Half-life:
2 days
Other S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices