V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
79.42%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
89.90%
increased by 8.52%
1 Month
114.84%
increased by 33.46%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1203 | 2.29** |
| βGARCH | 0.7450 | 18.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.1659 | 1.28 |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1203 | 2.29** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7450 | 18.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1659 | 1.28 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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