V-Lab
S&P / TSX 60 VIX Index CAD GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
94.46%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
102.22%
increased by 8.75%
1 Month
121.91%
increased by 28.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2017 to Sep 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.1229 | 2.34** |
| βGARCH | 0.7415 | 18.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.1687 | 1.32 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7415 | 18.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1687 | 1.32 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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