V-Lab
CDX/CBOE NA Investment Grade 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
91.92%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
93.87%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
99.15%
increased by 5.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6046 | 11.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1145 | 11.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8877 | 138.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1145 | -10.94*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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