V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
163.52%
increased by 1.96%
1 Week
156.76%
decreased by 4.80%
1 Month
137.58%
decreased by 23.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 190% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 190% more than negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6788 | 5.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.1727 | 4.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8153 | 33.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.1132 | -2.06** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6788 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1727 | 4.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8153 | 33.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1132 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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