V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
139.74%
decreased by 4.38%
1 Week
134.89%
decreased by 9.23%
1 Month
121.75%
decreased by 22.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 181% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8609 | 21.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1784 | 19.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8053 | 129.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1148 | -7.90*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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