Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
96.34%
decreased by 7.00%
1 Week
96.82%
decreased by 6.52%
1 Month
98.13%
decreased by 5.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 40.0891 | 3.16*** |
| αscore | 0.1188 | 7.39*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9396 | 51.20*** |
| νDF | 4.6350 | 2.60*** |
0.940
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 40.0891 | 3.16*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1188 | 7.39*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9396 | 51.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6350 | 2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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