Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 29th, 2026
1 Day
141.20%
increased by 22.80%
1 Week
136.77%
increased by 18.37%
1 Month
124.24%
increased by 5.84%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 3, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 39.2442 | 13.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1210 | 28.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9346 | 195.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6202 | 10.32*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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