V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
160.29%
increased by 12.33%
1 Week
154.26%
increased by 6.30%
1 Month
136.85%
decreased by 11.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 39.5725 | 13.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1214 | 29.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9357 | 196.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6159 | 10.42*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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