Skip to main content
V-Lab

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

160.29%

increased by 12.33%

1 Week

154.26%

increased by 6.30%

1 Month

136.85%

decreased by 11.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.5725
13.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1214
29.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9357
196.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6159
10.42***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

10 days