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Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

156.40%

increased by 38.32%

1 Week

150.96%

increased by 32.88%

1 Month

135.11%

increased by 17.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst39.8982
3.13***
αARCH0.1190
7.28***
βGARCH0.9383
49.44***
νDF4.5817
2.61***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.8982
3.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
7.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9383
49.44***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5817
2.61***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days