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Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

96.34%

decreased by 7.00%

1 Week

96.82%

decreased by 6.52%

1 Month

98.13%

decreased by 5.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run40.0891
3.16***
αscore0.1188
7.39***
βpersistence0.9396
51.20***
νDF4.6350
2.60***

0.940

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

40.0891
3.16***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1188
7.39***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9396
51.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6350
2.60***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days