V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
156.40%
increased by 38.32%
1 Week
150.96%
increased by 32.88%
1 Month
135.11%
increased by 17.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 4.58 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 39.8982 | 3.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.1190 | 7.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9383 | 49.44*** |
| νDF | 4.5817 | 2.61*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 39.8982 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 7.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9383 | 49.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5817 | 2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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