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V-Lab

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, June 29th, 2026

1 Day

141.20%

increased by 22.80%

1 Week

136.77%

increased by 18.37%

1 Month

124.24%

increased by 5.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 3, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jun 26, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.2442
13.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1210
28.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9346
195.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6202
10.32***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days