V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
83.09%
increased by 5.19%
1 Week
84.52%
increased by 6.62%
1 Month
88.20%
increased by 10.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 35.1669 | 14.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1114 | 22.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9348 | 189.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8105 | 5.84*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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