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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

88.05%

decreased by 8.39%

1 Week

88.83%

decreased by 7.61%

1 Month

90.88%

decreased by 5.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

35.2617
14.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1116
22.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9349
189.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8045
5.86***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days