V-Lab
CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
90.74%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
91.18%
increased by 1.43%
1 Month
92.34%
increased by 2.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 35.2736 | 14.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 22.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9349 | 189.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7975 | 5.87*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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