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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

90.74%

increased by 0.99%

1 Week

91.18%

increased by 1.43%

1 Month

92.34%

increased by 2.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

35.2736
14.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1118
22.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9349
189.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7975
5.87***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days