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V-Lab

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

83.09%

increased by 5.19%

1 Week

84.52%

increased by 6.62%

1 Month

88.20%

increased by 10.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

35.1669
14.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1114
22.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9348
189.80***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8105
5.84***

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days