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CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

142.17%

increased by 28.33%

1 Week

137.47%

increased by 23.63%

1 Month

123.83%

increased by 9.99%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 12:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-lifev = 5.91 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run35.3266
3.49***
αscore0.1083
5.74***
βpersistence0.9382
49.55***
νDF5.9124
1.41

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

35.3266
3.49***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1083
5.74***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9382
49.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9124
1.41

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days