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CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

83.75%

increased by 10.73%

1 Week

85.07%

increased by 12.05%

1 Month

88.47%

increased by 15.45%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 23, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-lifev = 5.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst35.0550
3.58***
αARCH0.1107
5.73***
βGARCH0.9350
48.01***
νDF5.8395
1.45

0.935

Persistence

10d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

35.0550
3.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1107
5.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9350
48.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8395
1.45

Persistence:

0.935

Half-life:

10 days