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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

114.49%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Week

113.38%

decreased by 3.61%

1 Month

110.04%

decreased by 6.95%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst41.1195
2.85***
αARCH0.0854
6.40***
βGARCH0.9514
48.57***
νDF5.4328
1.41

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

41.1195
2.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9514
48.57***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4328
1.41

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days