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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

91.52%

increased by 4.44%

1 Week

92.51%

increased by 5.43%

1 Month

95.38%

increased by 8.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

41.0995
11.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
25.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9515
193.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4213
5.65***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days