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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

103.99%

decreased by 7.51%

1 Week

103.79%

decreased by 7.71%

1 Month

103.21%

decreased by 8.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 04:42 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 5.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst41.1493
2.86***
αARCH0.0852
6.40***
βGARCH0.9516
48.82***
νDF5.4440
1.41

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

41.1493
2.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0852
6.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9516
48.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4440
1.41

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days