V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
98.90%
decreased by 7.22%
1 Week
99.18%
decreased by 6.94%
1 Month
100.01%
decreased by 6.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.2555 | 11.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 25.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9524 | 194.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4200 | 5.65*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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