V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
81.00%
decreased by 3.65%
1 Week
83.14%
decreased by 1.51%
1 Month
89.12%
increased by 4.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.0995 | 11.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 25.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9515 | 193.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4213 | 5.65*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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