V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
114.49%
decreased by 2.50%
1 Week
113.38%
decreased by 3.61%
1 Month
110.04%
decreased by 6.95%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 5.43 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 41.1195 | 2.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0854 | 6.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9514 | 48.57*** |
| νDF | 5.4328 | 1.41 |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 41.1195 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9514 | 48.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4328 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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