V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
141.29%
increased by 45.10%
1 Week
133.69%
increased by 37.50%
1 Month
121.82%
increased by 25.63%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7307 | 17.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 7.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6898 | 19.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -5.80*** |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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