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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

102.95%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

106.42%

increased by 3.68%

1 Month

111.26%

increased by 8.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7325
17.90***
αARCH0.1283
7.16***
βGARCH0.6907
19.30***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-5.84***

0.819

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7325
17.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1283
7.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6907
19.30***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-5.84***

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days