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V-Lab
V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

121.79%

increased by 11.10%

1 Week

119.51%

increased by 8.82%

1 Month

116.12%

increased by 5.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7323
17.83***
αARCH0.1288
7.16***
βGARCH0.6906
19.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-5.82***

0.819

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7323
17.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1288
7.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6906
19.31***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-5.82***

Persistence:

0.819

Half-life:

3 days