Skip to main content
V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

97.61%

decreased by 1.10%

1 Week

102.89%

increased by 4.18%

1 Month

110.08%

increased by 11.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7314
17.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1293
7.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6890
19.16***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0009
-5.79***

Persistence:

0.818

Half-life:

3 days