V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
109.71%
decreased by 7.56%
1 Week
111.03%
decreased by 6.24%
1 Month
112.91%
decreased by 4.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7327 | 17.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.1291 | 7.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6901 | 19.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -5.77*** |
0.819
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7327 | 17.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1291 | 7.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6901 | 19.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0009 | -5.77*** |
Persistence:
0.819
Half-life:
3 days
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