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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

104.44%

decreased by 7.41%

1 Week

103.68%

decreased by 8.17%

1 Month

102.66%

decreased by 9.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1910
39.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7197
67.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1910
-22.56***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3822
1.48
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0209
2.10**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9692
60.55***

Persistence:

0.815

Half-life:

3 days