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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

155.98%

increased by 66.78%

1 Week

142.15%

increased by 52.95%

1 Month

120.51%

increased by 31.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1911
39.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7182
67.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1911
-22.49***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3908
1.47
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0211
2.08**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9686
59.07***

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days