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EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

97.17%

increased by 9.65%

1 Week

96.93%

increased by 9.41%

1 Month

97.34%

increased by 9.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.1896
8.47***
βGARCH0.7209
24.59***
γleverage-0.1896
-6.25***
λ₁tau intercept0.3739
1.72*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0204
2.87***
λ₃tau persistence0.9698
79.95***

0.816

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1896
8.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7209
24.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1896
-6.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3739
1.72*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0204
2.87***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9698
79.95***

Persistence:

0.816

Half-life:

3 days