EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
87.10%
1 Week
90.25%
1 Month
94.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1889 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7214 | 24.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.1889 | -6.24*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3719 | 1.72* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0203 | 2.88*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9699 | 80.53*** |
0.816
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1889 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7214 | 24.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1889 | -6.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3719 | 1.72* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0203 | 2.88*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9699 | 80.53*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
Other EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices