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V-Lab

EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

96.57%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

97.96%

increased by 0.91%

1 Month

98.27%

increased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1907
39.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7187
67.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1907
-22.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3844
1.47
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0208
2.09**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9691
60.17***

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days