V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
96.57%
1 Week
97.96%
1 Month
98.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1907 | 39.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7187 | 67.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1907 | -22.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3844 | 1.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0208 | 2.09** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9691 | 60.17*** |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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