V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
155.98%
1 Week
142.15%
1 Month
120.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1911 | 39.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7182 | 67.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1911 | -22.49*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3908 | 1.47 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0211 | 2.08** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9686 | 59.07*** |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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