EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
104.44%
1 Week
103.68%
1 Month
102.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 04:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1910 | 39.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7197 | 67.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1910 | -22.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3822 | 1.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0209 | 2.10** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9692 | 60.55*** |
Persistence:
0.815
Half-life:
3 days
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