EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
103.47%
1 Week
102.37%
1 Month
101.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 05:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1878 | 8.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7230 | 24.78*** |
| γleverage | -0.1878 | -6.23*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3646 | 1.72* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0201 | 2.90*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9704 | 82.21*** |
0.817
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1878 | 8.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7230 | 24.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1878 | -6.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3646 | 1.72* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0201 | 2.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9704 | 82.21*** |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
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