V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
97.17%
1 Week
96.93%
1 Month
97.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 04:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.1896 | 8.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7209 | 24.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.1896 | -6.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3739 | 1.72* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0204 | 2.87*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9698 | 79.95*** |
0.816
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1896 | 8.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7209 | 24.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1896 | -6.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3739 | 1.72* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0204 | 2.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9698 | 79.95*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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