V-Lab
CBOE Gold Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
85.41%
1 Week
83.37%
1 Month
79.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 255% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1897 | 33.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7565 | 76.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1362 | -11.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0120 | 0.86 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0015 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9979 | 686.81*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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