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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

73.37%

decreased by 1.95%

1 Week

73.00%

decreased by 2.32%

1 Month

72.30%

decreased by 3.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 257% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1819
32.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7553
72.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1310
-10.89***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
630.06***

Persistence:

0.872

Half-life:

5 days