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V-Lab

CBOE Gold Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

85.41%

decreased by 7.99%

1 Week

83.37%

decreased by 10.03%

1 Month

79.35%

decreased by 14.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 12:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Gold Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 255% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1897
33.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7565
76.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1362
-11.25***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0120
0.86
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0015
1.47
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9979
686.81***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days