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V-Lab

CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

80.99%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

94.02%

increased by 11.97%

1 Month

103.28%

increased by 21.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5072
24.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4172
21.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-24.35***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0707
0.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0096
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9893
87.38***

Persistence:

0.674

Half-life:

2 days