V-Lab
CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
80.99%
1 Week
94.02%
1 Month
103.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5072 | 24.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4172 | 21.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -24.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0707 | 0.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0096 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9893 | 87.38*** |
Persistence:
0.674
Half-life:
2 days
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