CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
80.77%
1 Week
94.40%
1 Month
103.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5075 | 25.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4173 | 21.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -24.43*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0683 | 0.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0096 | 0.79 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9893 | 87.72*** |
Persistence:
0.675
Half-life:
2 days
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