Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

80.93%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

94.55%

increased by 13.37%

1 Month

103.51%

increased by 22.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5075
25.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4173
21.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-24.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0683
0.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0096
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9893
87.72***

Persistence:

0.675

Half-life:

2 days