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V-Lab

CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026

1 Day

80.77%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

94.40%

increased by 13.47%

1 Month

103.27%

increased by 22.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5075
25.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4173
21.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-24.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0683
0.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0096
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9893
87.72***

Persistence:

0.675

Half-life:

2 days