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V-Lab

CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

86.69%

increased by 2.23%

1 Week

96.28%

increased by 11.82%

1 Month

103.31%

increased by 18.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5071
24.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4184
21.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-24.35***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0685
0.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0096
0.79
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9893
87.94***

Persistence:

0.675

Half-life:

2 days