V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
41.45%
1 Week
41.75%
1 Month
42.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 338% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.2244 | 6.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6444 | 14.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.1731 | -4.53*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3179 | 1.98** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0658 | 2.03** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8944 | 18.75*** |
0.782
Persistence3d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2244 | 6.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6444 | 14.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1731 | -4.53*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3179 | 1.98** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0658 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8944 | 18.75*** |
Persistence:
0.782
Half-life:
3 days
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