V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
107.76%
1 Week
98.41%
1 Month
78.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.1627 | 4.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7737 | 13.23*** |
| γleverage | -0.1332 | -3.87*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 3.1585 | 1.45 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5931 | 1.52 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.870
Persistence5d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1627 | 4.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7737 | 13.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1332 | -3.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.1585 | 1.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5931 | 1.52 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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