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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

41.45%

decreased by 2.87%

1 Week

41.75%

decreased by 2.57%

1 Month

42.56%

decreased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 338% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 338% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.2244
6.87***
βGARCH0.6444
14.60***
γleverage-0.1731
-4.53***
λ₁tau intercept0.3179
1.98**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0658
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.8944
18.75***

0.782

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2244
6.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6444
14.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1731
-4.53***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3179
1.98**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0658
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8944
18.75***

Persistence:

0.782

Half-life:

3 days