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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

107.76%

increased by 11.85%

1 Week

98.41%

increased by 2.50%

1 Month

78.03%

decreased by 17.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 26, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.1627
4.90***
βGARCH0.7737
13.23***
γleverage-0.1332
-3.87***
λ₁tau intercept3.1585
1.45
λ₂forecast adj.0.5931
1.52
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.870

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1627
4.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7737
13.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1332
-3.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

3.1585
1.45
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5931
1.52
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.870

Half-life:

5 days