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CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

65.92%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Week

70.88%

increased by 2.72%

1 Month

75.57%

increased by 7.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 344% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 344% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH0.2330
4.40***
βGARCH0.6029
8.47***
γleverage-0.1805
-4.29***
λ₁tau intercept0.6838
0.97
λ₂forecast adj.0.0126
1.13
λ₃tau persistence0.9601
25.68***

0.746

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2330
4.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6029
8.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1805
-4.29***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6838
0.97
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0126
1.13
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9601
25.68***

Persistence:

0.746

Half-life:

2 days