V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
65.92%
1 Week
70.88%
1 Month
75.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 344% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 0.2330 | 4.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6029 | 8.47*** |
| γleverage | -0.1805 | -4.29*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6838 | 0.97 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0126 | 1.13 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9601 | 25.68*** |
0.746
Persistence2d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2330 | 4.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6029 | 8.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1805 | -4.29*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6838 | 0.97 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0126 | 1.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9601 | 25.68*** |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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