V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
78.76%
decreased by 3.65%
1 Week
83.65%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
90.43%
increased by 8.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1584 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1416 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6822 | 12.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1883 | -0.66 |
| γ2 | 0.3257 | 0.63 |
| γ3 | -0.1570 | -0.35 |
| γ4 | 0.2066 | 0.53 |
| γ5 | -0.4560 | -1.15 |
| γ6 | 0.3839 | 0.98 |
| γ7 | 0.1738 | 0.41 |
| γ8 | -1.0436 | -2.41** |
| γ9 | 1.5352 | 4.02*** |
| γ10 | -1.0917 | -3.45*** |
Persistence:
0.824
Half-life:
4 days
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