V-Lab
CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
79.35%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
87.38%
increased by 6.70%
1 Month
96.97%
increased by 16.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2217 | 5.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.1522 | 3.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6457 | 11.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | 0.1757 | 1.08 |
| γ3 | -0.2428 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.2470 | 2.19** |
| γ5 | -0.3480 | -2.84*** |
| γ6 | 0.4006 | 3.62*** |
| γ7 | -0.2754 | -3.09*** |
0.798
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2217 | 5.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1522 | 3.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6457 | 11.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.0395 | -0.35 |
| γ2 | 0.1757 | 1.08 |
| γ3 | -0.2428 | -2.12** |
| γ4 | 0.2470 | 2.19** |
| γ5 | -0.3480 | -2.84*** |
| γ6 | 0.4006 | 3.62*** |
| γ7 | -0.2754 | -3.09*** |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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