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CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

135.57%

increased by 9.63%

1 Week

126.68%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

113.99%

decreased by 11.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2112
5.31***
αARCH0.1503
3.84***
βGARCH0.6460
11.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.0414
-0.37
γ20.1786
1.11
γ3-0.2457
-2.16**
γ40.2527
2.25**
γ5-0.3618
-2.95***
γ60.4327
3.85***
γ7-0.3121
-3.45***

0.796

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2112
5.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1503
3.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6460
11.55***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.0414
-0.37
γ20.1786
1.11
γ3-0.2457
-2.16**
γ40.2527
2.25**
γ5-0.3618
-2.95***
γ60.4327
3.85***
γ7-0.3121
-3.45***

Persistence:

0.796

Half-life:

3 days