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V-Lab

KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

69.84%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

75.92%

increased by 6.34%

1 Month

85.72%

increased by 16.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7016
7.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1718
6.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6900
15.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0122
0.23
γ2-0.0592
-0.67
γ30.0453
0.61
γ40.0838
1.20
γ5-0.1889
-2.83***
γ60.1614
2.97***
γ7-0.0646
-1.65*

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days