V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
78.24%
decreased by 4.51%
1 Week
81.98%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
88.23%
increased by 5.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6952 | 7.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1727 | 6.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6876 | 15.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0096 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0567 | -0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.0480 | 0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.0774 | 1.10 |
| γ5 | -0.1839 | -2.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.1613 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -0.0666 | -1.77* |
0.860
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6952 | 7.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1727 | 6.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6876 | 15.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0096 | 0.19 |
| γ2 | -0.0567 | -0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.0480 | 0.65 |
| γ4 | 0.0774 | 1.10 |
| γ5 | -0.1839 | -2.71*** |
| γ6 | 0.1613 | 2.95*** |
| γ7 | -0.0666 | -1.77* |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
Other KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices