V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
65.82%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
73.05%
increased by 6.14%
1 Month
84.32%
increased by 17.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Sep 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6952 | 7.12*** |
| αARCH | 0.1736 | 6.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6862 | 15.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0092 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0566 | -0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.0494 | 0.67 |
| γ4 | 0.0745 | 1.06 |
| γ5 | -0.1815 | -2.65*** |
| γ6 | 0.1608 | 2.93*** |
| γ7 | -0.0668 | -1.82* |
0.860
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6952 | 7.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1736 | 6.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6862 | 15.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0092 | 0.18 |
| γ2 | -0.0566 | -0.65 |
| γ3 | 0.0494 | 0.67 |
| γ4 | 0.0745 | 1.06 |
| γ5 | -0.1815 | -2.65*** |
| γ6 | 0.1608 | 2.93*** |
| γ7 | -0.0668 | -1.82* |
Persistence:
0.860
Half-life:
5 days
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