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V-Lab

KOSPI 200 Volatility Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

78.24%

decreased by 4.51%

1 Week

81.98%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

88.23%

increased by 5.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6952
7.10***
αARCH0.1727
6.36***
βGARCH0.6876
15.41***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0096
0.19
γ2-0.0567
-0.65
γ30.0480
0.65
γ40.0774
1.10
γ5-0.1839
-2.71***
γ60.1613
2.95***
γ7-0.0666
-1.77*

0.860

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6952
7.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1727
6.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6876
15.41***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0096
0.19
γ2-0.0567
-0.65
γ30.0480
0.65
γ40.0774
1.10
γ5-0.1839
-2.71***
γ60.1613
2.95***
γ7-0.0666
-1.77*

Persistence:

0.860

Half-life:

5 days