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KOSPI 200 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

116.11%

decreased by 6.37%

1 Week

111.53%

decreased by 10.95%

1 Month

100.79%

decreased by 21.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifeδ = 1.34 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8829
1.76*
αARCH0.0863
0.16
βGARCH0.8190
29.39***
γleverage-1.0000
-0.11
δpower1.3433
4.60***

0.910

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8829
1.76*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0863
0.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8190
29.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-0.11
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3433
4.60***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days