KOSPI 200 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
116.11%
1 Week
111.53%
1 Month
100.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8829 | 1.76* |
| αARCH | 0.0863 | 0.16 |
| βGARCH | 0.8190 | 29.39*** |
| γleverage | -1.0000 | -0.11 |
| δpower | 1.3433 | 4.60*** |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8829 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8190 | 29.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.11 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3433 | 4.60*** |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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