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V-Lab

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

67.22%

decreased by 2.45%

1 Week

71.17%

increased by 1.50%

1 Month

80.02%

increased by 10.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.13 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6652
9.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
6.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8352
124.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-4.18***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1287
23.03***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days