V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
138.52%
1 Week
134.20%
1 Month
121.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 1.44 |
| αARCH | 0.0890 | 3.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8616 | 41.43*** |
| γleverage | -0.3237 | -1.32 |
| δpower | 1.7106 | 5.12*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0890 | 3.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 41.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3237 | -1.32 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7106 | 5.12*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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