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CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

138.52%

increased by 51.11%

1 Week

134.20%

increased by 46.79%

1 Month

121.31%

increased by 33.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 10, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 13-day half-lifeδ = 1.71 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0000
1.44
αARCH0.0890
3.68***
βGARCH0.8616
41.43***
γleverage-0.3237
-1.32
δpower1.7106
5.12***

0.948

Persistence

13d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.44
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0890
3.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8616
41.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3237
-1.32
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7106
5.12***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days