Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

89.38%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Week

95.46%

increased by 4.75%

1 Month

114.27%

increased by 23.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 357% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0000
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1134
4.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8636
38.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4853
-2.11**
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4347
7.06***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days