V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
89.38%
1 Week
95.46%
1 Month
114.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 357% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.43 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1134 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8636 | 38.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4853 | -2.11** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4347 | 7.06*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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