V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
215.89%
increased by 1.48%
1 Week
212.71%
decreased by 1.70%
1 Month
202.71%
decreased by 11.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Oct 2, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.1650 | 6.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7927 | 33.66*** |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1650 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7927 | 33.66*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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