KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
185.93%
increased by 48.49%
1 Week
169.14%
increased by 31.70%
1 Month
132.05%
decreased by 5.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1968 | 4.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1858 | 6.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6856 | 15.89*** |
0.871
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1968 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1858 | 6.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6856 | 15.89*** |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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