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KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

99.04%

decreased by 11.45%

1 Week

97.00%

decreased by 13.49%

1 Month

92.25%

decreased by 18.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run29.8325
3.11***
αscore0.1420
5.26***
βpersistence0.9053
27.32***
νDF4.8447
1.82*

0.905

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

29.8325
3.11***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1420
5.26***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9053
27.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8447
1.82*

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days