KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
68.04%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
71.32%
increased by 3.36%
1 Month
78.51%
increased by 10.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.8193 | 11.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1375 | 20.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9135 | 110.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7693 | 7.33*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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