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KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

105.03%

decreased by 14.54%

1 Week

102.28%

decreased by 17.29%

1 Month

95.54%

decreased by 24.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.7126
11.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1370
20.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9120
109.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7635
7.31***

Persistence:

0.912

Half-life:

8 days