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KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

66.05%

increased by 4.19%

1 Week

69.80%

increased by 7.94%

1 Month

77.76%

increased by 15.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.79 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst29.6052
2.96***
αARCH0.1383
5.23***
βGARCH0.9101
27.51***
νDF4.7916
1.83*

0.910

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.6052
2.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1383
5.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9101
27.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7916
1.83*

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days