KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
99.04%
decreased by 11.45%
1 Week
97.00%
decreased by 13.49%
1 Month
92.25%
decreased by 18.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.84 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 29.8325 | 3.11*** |
| αscore | 0.1420 | 5.26*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9053 | 27.32*** |
| νDF | 4.8447 | 1.82* |
0.905
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 29.8325 | 3.11*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1420 | 5.26*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 27.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8447 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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