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V-Lab

KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

68.04%

increased by 0.08%

1 Week

71.32%

increased by 3.36%

1 Month

78.51%

increased by 10.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 2003 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.8193
11.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1375
20.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9135
110.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7693
7.33***

Persistence:

0.913

Half-life:

8 days