V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
97.66%
increased by 4.19%
1 Week
95.95%
increased by 2.48%
1 Month
91.85%
decreased by 1.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.76 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.7126 | 11.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1370 | 20.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9120 | 109.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7635 | 7.31*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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