V-Lab
KOSPI 200 Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
66.05%
increased by 4.19%
1 Week
69.80%
increased by 7.94%
1 Month
77.76%
increased by 15.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 2003 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.79 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 29.6052 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.1383 | 5.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9101 | 27.51*** |
| νDF | 4.7916 | 1.83* |
0.910
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 29.6052 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1383 | 5.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9101 | 27.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7916 | 1.83* |
Persistence:
0.910
Half-life:
7 days
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