V-Lab
CBOE Realized Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
39.88%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
39.88%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
39.87%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.1080 | 5.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0034 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 1,181.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0767 | 8.68*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
230 days
Other CBOE Realized Volatility Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices