CBOE Realized Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
41.65%
increased by 4.50%
1 Week
45.38%
increased by 8.23%
1 Month
47.85%
increased by 10.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4423 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0203 | 0.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.2360 | 1.53 |
| γleverage | 0.7564 | 1.88* |
0.634
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4423 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0203 | 0.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2360 | 1.53 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7564 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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