V-Lab
CBOE Realized Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
39.25%
decreased by 3.35%
1 Week
44.34%
increased by 1.74%
1 Month
47.62%
increased by 5.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.4487 | 3.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0202 | 0.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.2358 | 1.53 |
| γleverage | 0.7564 | 1.88* |
0.634
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4487 | 3.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 0.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2358 | 1.53 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7564 | 1.88* |
Persistence:
0.634
Half-life:
2 days
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