CBOE Realized Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.35%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
42.52%
increased by 7.16%
1 Month
47.53%
increased by 12.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 1, 2012 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4704 | 13.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0202 | 2.47** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2357 | 6.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7662 | 7.55*** |
Persistence:
0.639
Half-life:
2 days
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