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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

192.45%

increased by 3.43%

1 Week

192.08%

increased by 3.06%

1 Month

190.92%

increased by 1.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
8.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0568
11.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9356
234.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0568
-6.16***

Persistence:

0.964

Half-life:

19 days