V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
185.76%
decreased by 9.21%
1 Week
190.01%
decreased by 4.96%
1 Month
196.91%
increased by 1.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -10.00) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.0000 | 17.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0944 | 25.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7541 | 179.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -10.0000 | -19.88*** |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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