V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
74.32%
decreased by 3.35%
1 Week
80.14%
increased by 2.47%
1 Month
90.07%
increased by 12.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -2.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9844 | 22.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1493 | 35.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7225 | 113.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -2.3913 | -17.34*** |
Persistence:
0.872
Half-life:
5 days
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