V-Lab
SMI Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
70.63%
decreased by 3.89%
1 Week
74.04%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
80.81%
increased by 6.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9756 | 5.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1194 | 10.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7764 | 46.00*** |
| γleverage | -3.1316 | -7.82*** |
0.896
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9756 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1194 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7764 | 46.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -3.1316 | -7.82*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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