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SMI Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

70.63%

decreased by 3.89%

1 Week

74.04%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

80.81%

increased by 6.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9756
5.03***
αARCH0.1194
10.12***
βGARCH0.7764
46.00***
γleverage-3.1316
-7.82***

0.896

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9756
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1194
10.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7764
46.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.1316
-7.82***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days