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SMI Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

97.34%

decreased by 8.17%

1 Week

95.52%

decreased by 9.99%

1 Month

91.53%

decreased by 13.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -3.13) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.9734
5.03***
αARCH0.1193
10.12***
βGARCH0.7766
46.09***
γleverage-3.1328
-7.83***

0.896

Persistence

6d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.9734
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1193
10.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7766
46.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-3.1328
-7.83***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days