V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
80.44%
decreased by 6.16%
1 Week
82.32%
decreased by 4.28%
1 Month
86.36%
decreased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8025 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1401 | 5.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7638 | 25.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.5390 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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