CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
103.51%
decreased by 5.25%
1 Week
102.96%
decreased by 5.80%
1 Month
101.15%
decreased by 7.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2419 | 18.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 23.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8231 | 153.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0054 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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