CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
67.67%
increased by 2.00%
1 Week
69.86%
increased by 4.19%
1 Month
76.46%
increased by 10.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2480 | 4.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1425 | 5.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8239 | 39.15*** |
| γleverage | -0.0018 | -0.04 |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2480 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1425 | 5.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8239 | 39.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0018 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
Other CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Volatility Indices