V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
88.07%
increased by 20.22%
1 Week
88.59%
increased by 20.74%
1 Month
90.26%
increased by 22.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 15, 2008 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2485 | 4.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1427 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8237 | 39.10*** |
| γleverage | -0.0015 | -0.04 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2485 | 4.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1427 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8237 | 39.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0015 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
Other CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index Analyses
Other Asy. MEM Analyses on Volatility Indices