Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

409.60%

decreased by 2.05%

1 Week

411.56%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

419.19%

increased by 7.54%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 257 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.88
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0145
1.21
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9689
106.52***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0278
0.58

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

257 days