V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
409.60%
decreased by 2.05%
1 Week
411.56%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
419.19%
increased by 7.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 257 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.88 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0145 | 1.21 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9689 | 106.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0278 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
257 days
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