V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
399.56%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
399.61%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
399.80%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.22 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 0.79 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9726 | 133.25*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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