CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
67.40%
increased by 4.16%
1 Week
69.78%
increased by 6.54%
1 Month
75.69%
increased by 12.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 9, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.9009 | 4.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.3784 | 10.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5546 | 21.07*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.9009 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3784 | 10.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5546 | 21.07*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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